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ZixuanZhang
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Extinction Probability

The extinction probability of a branching process with offspring probability generating function satisfies

and is the minimal non-negative solution of ; moreover if and only if .

Proposition 3.68

Let be the PGF of . Then , and

Proof of the fixed point equation

Since and is continuous with , letting gives .

For directly: .

Alternatively, conditioning on and writing for independent copies of the process started from one individual,

Means of the generations

Theorem 3.66

Let be a branching process with offspring distribution . Then,

Proof of the mean formula

By induction: , and assuming ,

so and taking expectation gives .

Generating functions across generations

Theorem 3.67

Let and . Then

Minimal solution characterisation

Theorem 3.69

Let be a branching process with offspring distribution . Assume that .

Then the extinction probability is the minimal non-negative solution to the equation .

Moreover, iff .

Proof of the characterisation

Let be the smallest non-negative solution of . Induction on shows : the case is clear, and increasing on gives

Hence as , while because itself solves the fixed point equation; so .

For the criterion that exactly when , first suppose . Then and , so

and since , necessarily .

Now assume and . Define , so and

because some with . Hence is strictly increasing on , so by Rolle’s theorem has at most one root other than .

If there is no other root then , and since and we have on , whence

that is .

If instead for some , that root must be the extinction probability . Rolle’s theorem gives with , and strict increase yields

so .

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